Kazakhstan’s climate equipment market is growing by 12–15% a year, according to the 2026 market review published by the engineering company SAMP.KZ. Housing construction, the shift to inverter equipment and new efficiency rules favouring R32 refrigerant are the three forces driving demand.
A climate that tests every system
Kazakhstan’s sharply continental climate leaves little room for compromise: Almaty summers reach +38 °C, Astana winters fall to −35 °C, and the heating season in the north lasts around six months. Systems therefore have to cover both cooling and heating duty, and cannot simply be sized on floor area.
Inverters and R32 become the default
Inverter units now account for 78% of sales and cut energy use by 40–60% compared with on/off models. For a typical 60–100 m² apartment, a 9–12 kW residential inverter system covers the load. R32 has become the standard refrigerant — its global warming potential of 675 is less than half that of R410A (1,430) — and the updated СН РК 4.02-2011 norms require R32 for new installations.
Efficiency rules shape public procurement
Under Law РК No. 449-VI, government tenders require A+++ class equipment, and heat pumps must reach a SCOP of at least 4.5. Smart-home compatibility is spreading quickly too: 45% of new systems can be linked to Yandex Smart Home, Tuya or Google Home.
Construction drives demand
Almaty is building around 1.2 million m² of housing this year (+18% on 2025) and Astana about 950,000 m² (+22%). Roughly 90% of new residential buildings are fitted with multi-split systems as standard, making new construction the single largest source of demand.
Two cities, two different profiles
Almaty remains a cooling market. Astana, where winter load dominates, is driving demand for heating and ventilation — including supply and exhaust units with heat recovery of up to 92%. Imported brands hold roughly 65% of the market.
Outlook
Analysts expect the market to grow a further 17% in 2027 as EU green norms and local efficiency requirements continue to spread.